Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
R+1.6
21 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.4
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KAConsulting | D+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | D+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Echelon Insights | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Phillips Academy | D+1.7 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Noble Predictive Insights | D+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | D+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | Research Co. | R+1.0 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 10 | YouGov | R+1.0 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 11 | Data for Progress | R+2.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | WPA Intelligence | R+2.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | SSRS | R+2.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | Cygnal | R+2.5 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 15 | VotePredictor | R+3.4 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 16 | Trafalgar Group | R+4.9 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 17 | Rasmussen Reports | R+5.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 18 | Emerson College | R+5.2 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 19 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+5.6 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 20 | InsiderAdvantage | R+6.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | University of Nevada Department of Political Science | D+13.0 | 12.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 51% | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Rep 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 56% | 0.317 | ✗ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 11 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 12 | The Economist | Rep 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Rep 74% | 0.551 | ✗ |
| 14 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (31)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-06 | 1089 | R+4.9 | 6 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1100 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-11-04 | 550 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| KAConsulting | 2022-11-02 | 501 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Cygnal | 2022-11-01 | 600 | R+2.5 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-28 | 2000 | R+5.2 | 6 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2022-10-26 | 600 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-10-26 | 500 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2022-10-26 | 500 | R+5.6 | 6 |
| Echelon Insights | 2022-10-25 | 500 | EVEN | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-24 | 1100 | R+4.2 | 5 |
| Phillips Academy | 2022-10-22 | 1052 | D+1.7 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2022-10-21 | 885 | EVEN | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2022-10-21 | 501 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-20 | 550 | R+1.9 | 3 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2022-10-17 | 500 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | 2022-10-16 | 721 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-16 | 819 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-16 | 1057 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2022-10-15 | 707 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| University of Nevada Department of Political Science | 2022-10-12 | 586 | D+13.0 | 12 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-10-06 | 500 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2022-10-03 | 500 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2022-09-29 | 828 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2022-09-24 | 741 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-09-20 | 500 | R+2.9 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-19 | 1086 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2022-09-19 | 500 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-09-16 | 874 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-09 | 1000 | R+0.5 | 1 |