Toss-up · 2022 Senate

Nevada Senate

In the 2022 Nevada Senate race, Catherine Cortez Masto (D) won by less than a point.

Catherine Cortez Masto· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+0.8

Final polls said

R+1.6

21 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	KAConsulting	D+1.0	0.2	✓
2	Suffolk University	D+1.0	0.2	✓
3	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	D+1.0	0.2	✓
4	Echelon Insights	EVEN	0.8	✗
5	The New York Times/Siena College	EVEN	0.8	✗
6	Phillips Academy	D+1.7	0.9	✓
7	Noble Predictive Insights	D+2.0	1.2	✓
8	BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research	D+2.0	1.2	✓
9	Research Co.	R+1.0	1.8	✗
10	YouGov	R+1.0	1.8	✗
11	Data for Progress	R+2.0	2.8	✗
12	WPA Intelligence	R+2.0	2.8	✗
13	SSRS	R+2.0	2.8	✗
14	Cygnal	R+2.5	3.3	✗
15	Trafalgar Group	R+4.9	5.7	✗
16	Rasmussen Reports	R+5.0	5.8	✗
17	Emerson College	R+5.2	6.0	✗
18	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	R+5.6	6.4	✗
19	InsiderAdvantage	R+6.0	6.8	✗
20	University of Nevada Department of Political Science	D+13.0	12.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
2	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
3	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
4	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
5	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
6	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
7	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 51%	0.260	✗
8	Race to the WH	Rep 53%	0.281	✗
9	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 56%	0.317	✗
10	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.360	✗
11	JHK Forecasts	Rep 60%	0.360	✗
12	The Economist	Rep 66%	0.436	✗
13	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
14	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 75%	0.569	✗