Actual result
R+6.1
Final polls said
R+4.3
16 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+6.2 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.7 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Targoz Market Research | R+7.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Civiqs | R+5.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Remington Research Group | R+5.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Research Co. | R+8.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | R+4.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Emerson College | R+8.9 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Data for Progress | R+10.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Suffolk University | R+2.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Trafalgar Group | R+10.4 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Marist College | R+1.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 13 | Siena College | EVEN | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 14 | Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy | D+1.9 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 15 | Fallon Research & Communications | D+3.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 16 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | D+4.2 | 10.3 | ✗ |
| 17 | Center Street PAC | D+5.0 | 11.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 3 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | Rep 85% | 0.024 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (29)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs | 2022-11-06 | 716 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-04 | 1123 | R+10.4 | 4 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2022-11-04 | 505 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1413 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| Cygnal | 2022-11-02 | 1498 | R+6.2 | 0 |
| Remington Research Group | 2022-11-01 | 1125 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-31 | 1000 | R+8.9 | 3 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-28 | 1510 | R+4.5 | 2 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-10-25 | 508 | D+5.0 | 11 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-22 | 1886 | R+4.1 | 2 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2022-10-22 | 1068 | D+4.2 | 10 |
| Marist College | 2022-10-19 | 1141 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-16 | 1438 | R+4.1 | 2 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2022-10-16 | 568 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Siena College | 2022-10-16 | 644 | EVEN | 6 |
| Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy | 2022-10-13 | 668 | D+1.9 | 8 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-10-13 | 500 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-11 | 1081 | R+3.5 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-09 | 1016 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-07 | 640 | R+1.9 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-06 | 1000 | R+0.8 | 5 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-10-02 | 528 | D+11.0 | 17 |
| Siena College | 2022-09-20 | 642 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2022-09-14 | 855 | D+3.1 | 9 |
| Marist College | 2022-09-14 | 1200 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-12 | 1000 | R+4.3 | 2 |
| Civiqs | 2022-09-12 | 780 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Fallon Research & Communications | 2022-09-08 | 600 | D+3.0 | 9 |