Toss-up · 2022 Senate

Ohio Senate

In the 2022 Ohio Senate race, J.D. Vance (R) won by about 6 points.

Actual result

R+6.1

Final polls said

R+4.3

16 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Cygnal	R+6.2	0.1	✓
2	Targoz Market Research	R+7.0	0.9	✓
3	Civiqs	R+5.0	1.1	✓
4	Remington Research Group	R+5.0	1.1	✓
5	Research Co.	R+8.0	1.9	✓
6	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	R+4.0	2.1	✓
7	Emerson College	R+8.9	2.8	✓
8	Data for Progress	R+10.0	3.9	✓
9	Suffolk University	R+2.0	4.1	✓
10	Trafalgar Group	R+10.4	4.3	✓
11	Marist College	R+1.0	5.1	✓
12	Siena College	EVEN	6.1	✗
13	Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy	D+1.9	8.0	✗
14	Fallon Research & Communications	D+3.0	9.1	✗
15	Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute	D+4.2	10.3	✗
16	Center Street PAC	D+5.0	11.1	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 92%	0.006	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Rep 92%	0.006	✓
3	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
4	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 87%	0.017	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 86%	0.019	✓
7	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 85%	0.022	✓
8	Race to the WH	Rep 85%	0.023	✓
9	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
10	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
11	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
12	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
14	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.062	✓