Actual result
D+14.9
Final polls said
D+14.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+14.6 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data for Progress | D+14.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+17.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Civiqs | D+17.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-03 | 1393 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-31 | 975 | D+17.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-17 | 1021 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-17 | 804 | D+17.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-30 | 796 | D+19.5 | 5 |