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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Oregon Senate
In the 2022 Oregon Senate race, Ron Wyden (D) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
D+14.9
Final polls said
D+14.8
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data for Progress | D+14.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+17.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Civiqs | D+17.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Data for Progress2022-11-031
Emerson College2022-10-312
Data for Progress2022-10-174
Civiqs2022-10-172
Emerson College2022-09-305
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Oregon Senate race?
Ron Wyden (D) won, by about 14.9 points (D+14.9).
When was the 2022 Oregon Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.