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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Pennsylvania Senate
In the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race, John Fetterman (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+4.9
Final polls said
D+0.9
25 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+5.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SSRS | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Echelon Insights | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Phillips Academy | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Suffolk University | D+1.8 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 14 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 15 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | EVEN | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 16 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+1.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 17 | Emerson College | R+1.1 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 18 | Wick | R+1.7 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 19 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.2 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 20 | InsiderAdvantage | R+2.3 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 21 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 22 | co/efficient | R+3.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 23 | Patriot Polling | R+3.3 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 24 | Targoz Market Research | R+5.0 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 25 | Center Street PAC | D+19.0 | 14.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 55% | 0.203 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.381 | ✗ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
40 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group2022-11-061
Research Co.2022-11-054
Targoz Market Research2022-11-0410
Patriot Polling2022-11-048
InsiderAdvantage2022-11-037
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race?
John Fetterman (D) won, by about 4.9 points (D+4.9).
When was the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.