Toss-up · 2022 Senate

Pennsylvania Senate

In the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race, John Fetterman (D) won by about 5 points.

Actual result

D+4.9

Final polls said

D+0.9

25 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Dem

"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	The New York Times/Siena College	D+5.0	0.1	✓
2	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+4.0	0.9	✓
3	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	D+6.0	1.1	✓
4	Marist College	D+6.0	1.1	✓
5	SSRS	D+6.0	1.1	✓
6	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	D+3.0	1.9	✓
7	Echelon Insights	D+3.0	1.9	✓
8	YouGov	D+2.0	2.9	✓
9	Rasmussen Reports	D+2.0	2.9	✓
10	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	D+2.0	2.9	✓
11	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research	D+2.0	2.9	✓
12	Phillips Academy	D+2.0	2.9	✓
13	Suffolk University	D+1.8	3.1	✓
14	Research Co.	D+1.0	3.9	✓
15	Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion	EVEN	4.9	✗
16	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	R+1.0	5.9	✗
17	Emerson College	R+1.1	6.0	✗
18	Wick	R+1.7	6.6	✗
19	Trafalgar Group	R+2.2	7.1	✗
20	InsiderAdvantage	R+2.3	7.2	✗
21	Remington Research Group	R+3.0	7.9	✗
22	co/efficient	R+3.0	7.9	✗
23	Patriot Polling	R+3.3	8.2	✗
24	Targoz Market Research	R+5.0	9.9	✗
25	Center Street PAC	D+19.0	14.1	✓

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 55%	0.203	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 52%	0.230	✓
3	Race to the WH	Dem 52%	0.230	✓
4	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
5	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
6	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
7	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
8	JHK Forecasts	Rep 52%	0.270	✗
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 57%	0.325	✗
10	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.360	✗
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 62%	0.381	✗
12	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
13	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
14	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.562	✗