Actual result
D+4.9
Final polls said
D+0.9
25 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+5.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SSRS | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Echelon Insights | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Phillips Academy | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Suffolk University | D+1.8 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | D+1.4 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 16 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | EVEN | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 17 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+1.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 18 | Emerson College | R+1.1 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 19 | Wick | R+1.7 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 20 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.2 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 21 | InsiderAdvantage | R+2.3 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 22 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 23 | co/efficient | R+3.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 24 | Patriot Polling | R+3.3 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 25 | Targoz Market Research | R+5.0 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 26 | Center Street PAC | D+19.0 | 14.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 56% | 0.191 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.381 | ✗ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (40)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 2022-11-06 | 800 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2022-11-04 | 631 | R+5.0 | 10 |
| Patriot Polling | 2022-11-04 | 846 | R+3.3 | 8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-11-03 | 750 | R+2.3 | 7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-02 | 1097 | R+2.2 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2022-11-01 | 1152 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Remington Research Group | 2022-11-01 | 1180 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2022-10-30 | 700 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-30 | 1000 | R+1.1 | 6 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-10-29 | 500 | D+1.8 | 3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-10-28 | 1005 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| co/efficient | 2022-10-27 | 1716 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-26 | 750 | R+2.7 | 8 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2022-10-26 | 460 | EVEN | 5 |
| Wick | 2022-10-26 | 1000 | R+1.7 | 7 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2022-10-25 | 620 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-23 | 1084 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Echelon Insights | 2022-10-19 | 500 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-19 | 550 | D+0.8 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2022-10-19 | 972 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-19 | 850 | D+5.7 | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2022-10-18 | 504 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2022-10-18 | 384 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2022-10-15 | 703 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Patriot Polling | 2022-10-11 | 857 | R+1.6 | 7 |
| Wick | 2022-10-10 | 1013 | R+4.5 | 9 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-10 | 1078 | D+2.4 | 3 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-10-08 | 1400 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-09-29 | 568 | D+19.0 | 14 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-09-29 | 500 | D+6.4 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-25 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-09-24 | 1008 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-09-23 | 500 | D+3.1 | 2 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2022-09-22 | 517 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2022-09-21 | 1242 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Phillips Academy | 2022-09-18 | 759 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2022-09-15 | 420 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-14 | 1078 | D+1.8 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2022-09-09 | 1188 | D+5.0 | 0 |