Toss-up · 2022 Senate

Washington Senate

In the 2022 Washington Senate race, Patty Murray (D) won by about 15 points.

Patty Murray· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+14.5

Final polls said

D+4.9

10 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Civiqs	D+14.0	0.5	✓
2	Elway Research	D+13.0	1.5	✓
3	Strategies 360	D+12.0	2.5	✓
4	Public Policy Polling	D+10.0	4.5	✓
5	Emerson College	D+8.8	5.7	✓
6	SurveyUSA	D+8.0	6.5	✓
7	KAConsulting	D+6.0	8.5	✓
8	American Pulse Research & Polling	D+5.2	9.3	✓
9	OnMessage Inc.	D+4.0	10.5	✓
10	co/efficient	D+3.0	11.5	✓
11	InsiderAdvantage	D+1.6	12.9	✓
12	Trafalgar Group	D+1.2	13.3	✓
13	Moore Information Group	R+0.4	14.9	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Elections Daily	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Split Ticket	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	Race to the WH	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 92%	0.006	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 91%	0.009	✓
7	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
12	The Economist	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
13	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 76%	0.060	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—