Actual result
D+14.5
Final polls said
D+4.9
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Civiqs | D+14.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elway Research | D+13.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategies 360 | D+12.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+8.8 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | KAConsulting | D+6.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | American Pulse Research & Polling | D+5.2 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | D+4.7 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | OnMessage Inc. | D+4.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | co/efficient | D+3.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | InsiderAdvantage | D+1.6 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Trafalgar Group | D+1.2 | 13.3 | ✓ |
| 14 | Moore Information Group | R+0.4 | 14.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 91% | 0.009 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | The Economist | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Dem 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information Group | 2022-11-04 | 500 | R+0.4 | 15 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-31 | 550 | D+1.6 | 13 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-27 | 1207 | D+1.2 | 13 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2022-10-26 | 506 | D+5.2 | 9 |
| KAConsulting | 2022-10-21 | 500 | D+6.0 | 9 |
| Moore Information Group | 2022-10-21 | 500 | EVEN | 15 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2022-10-19 | 782 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| co/efficient | 2022-10-19 | 1181 | D+3.0 | 12 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-17 | 698 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-16 | 589 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-30 | 782 | D+8.8 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2022-09-27 | 770 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Strategies 360 | 2022-09-25 | 370 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2022-09-24 | 600 | D+4.0 | 11 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-23 | 1091 | D+2.2 | 12 |
| Elway Research | 2022-09-14 | 403 | D+13.0 | 2 |