Toss-up · 2022 Senate

Wisconsin Senate

In the 2022 Wisconsin Senate race, Ron Johnson (R) won by about 1 point.

Ron Johnson· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+1.0

Final polls said

R+3.4

13 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Civiqs	R+1.0	0.0	✓
2	SSRS	R+1.0	0.0	✓
3	YouGov	R+1.0	0.0	✓
4	Siena College	R+2.0	1.0	✓
5	Marquette University Law School	R+2.0	1.0	✓
6	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	R+2.0	1.0	✓
7	Public Policy Polling	EVEN	1.0	✗
8	Trafalgar Group	R+2.7	1.7	✓
9	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+3.0	2.0	✓
10	OnMessage Inc.	R+4.0	3.0	✓
11	Clarity Campaign Labs	D+2.0	3.0	✗
12	Wick	R+4.1	3.1	✓
13	Emerson College	R+4.6	3.6	✓
14	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research	R+5.0	4.0	✓
15	Research Co.	R+6.0	5.0	✓
16	Data for Progress	R+6.0	5.0	✓
17	Patriot Polling	R+8.4	7.4	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 91%	0.008	✓
2	Race to the WH	Rep 89%	0.012	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 83%	0.028	✓
4	The Economist	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Rep 80%	0.040	✓
7	CNalysis	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
8	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
9	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
10	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
12	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—