Actual result
R+1.0
Final polls said
R+3.4
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Civiqs | R+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SSRS | R+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Siena College | R+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marquette University Law School | R+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | OnMessage Inc. | R+4.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+2.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 12 | Wick | R+4.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 13 | Emerson College | R+4.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 14 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | R+5.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 15 | VotePredictor | R+5.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 16 | Research Co. | R+6.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 17 | Data for Progress | R+6.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 18 | Patriot Polling | R+8.4 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 83% | 0.030 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (27)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs | 2022-11-06 | 739 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1504 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-03 | 1095 | R+2.7 | 2 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2022-10-29 | 888 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Siena College | 2022-10-29 | 655 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-28 | 1000 | R+4.6 | 4 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2022-10-28 | 679 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-10-28 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Wick | 2022-10-28 | 1089 | R+4.1 | 3 |
| Patriot Polling | 2022-10-22 | 801 | R+8.4 | 7 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-18 | 1376 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| SSRS | 2022-10-15 | 714 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2022-10-13 | 502 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2022-10-09 | 874 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2022-10-06 | 652 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-05 | 1137 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2022-09-26 | 574 | EVEN | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-09-24 | 1012 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-09-22 | 999 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-09-22 | 500 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-17 | 860 | R+3.6 | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-17 | 1087 | R+2.2 | 1 |
| Siena College | 2022-09-14 | 651 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2022-09-12 | 800 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Civiqs | 2022-09-12 | 780 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2022-09-08 | 632 | R+1.0 | 0 |