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Toss-up · 2024 House
Alaska House
In the 2024 Alaska House race, Nicholas J. Begich III (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+2.5
Final polls said
R+4.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+4.1 | 1.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 62% | 0.142 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 51% | 0.257 | ✗ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Dem 51% | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 64% | 0.407 | ✗ |
| 12 | The Economist | Dem 65% | 0.425 | ✗ |
| 13 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 82% | 0.669 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Cygnal2024-10-152
Cygnal2024-10-152
Cygnal2024-10-152
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Alaska House race?
Nicholas J. Begich III (R) won, by about 2.5 points (R+2.5).
When was the 2024 Alaska House election held?
It was held in November 2024.