Toss-up · 2024 House

Alaska House

In the 2024 Alaska House race, Nicholas J. Begich III (R) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

R+2.1

Final polls said

R+4.3

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Cygnal	R+4.1	2.0	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
2	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 63%	0.137	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 62%	0.142	✓
5	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
7	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
8	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 51%	0.257	✗
9	Split Ticket	Dem 51%	0.260	✗
10	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.360	✗
11	Race to the WH	Dem 64%	0.407	✗
12	The Economist	Dem 65%	0.425	✗
13	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
14	JHK Forecasts	Dem 82%	0.669	✗