Alabama House

Actual result

D+9.2

Final polls said

D+7.8

2 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

D+6.0

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Schoen Cooperman Research	D+11.0	1.8	✓
2	VotePredictor	D+6.0	3.2	✓
3	Montgomery Research	D+4.6	4.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Elections Daily	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 94%	0.003	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
5	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Race to the WH	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	RealClearPolitics	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	JHK Forecasts	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
12	Split Ticket	Dem 81%	0.036	✓
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 78%	0.048	✓
14	VotePredictor	Rep 62%	0.382	✗

Polls (2)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Montgomery Research	2024-10-22	994	D+4.6	5
Schoen Cooperman Research	2024-10-15	400	D+11.0	2