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Toss-up · 2024 House
Alabama House
In the 2024 Alabama House race, Shomari Figures (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+9.2
Final polls said
D+7.8
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schoen Cooperman Research | D+11.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Montgomery Research | D+4.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 75% | 0.061 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Montgomery Research2024-10-225
Schoen Cooperman Research2024-10-152
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Alabama House race?
Shomari Figures (D) won, by about 9.2 points (D+9.2).
When was the 2024 Alabama House election held?
It was held in November 2024.