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Toss-up · 2024 House
California House
In the 2024 California House race, David G. Valadao (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+6.8
Final polls said
D+1.7
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+1.7 | 8.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 56% | 0.313 | ✗ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 59% | 0.350 | ✗ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 13 | The Economist | Dem 61% | 0.367 | ✗ |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Dem 78% | 0.608 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2024-10-249
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 California House race?
David G. Valadao (R) won, by about 6.8 points (R+6.8).
When was the 2024 California House election held?
It was held in November 2024.