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Toss-up · 2024 House
California House
In the 2024 California House race, David G. Valadao (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+6.8
Final polls said
D+1.7
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+1.7 | 8.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 9 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 57% | 0.327 | ✗ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 59% | 0.350 | ✗ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 13 | The Economist | Dem 61% | 0.367 | ✗ |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Dem 78% | 0.608 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2024-10-249
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 California House race?
David G. Valadao (R) won, by about 6.8 points (R+6.8).
When was the 2024 California House election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.