California House

Actual result

D+2.8

Final polls said

R+3.0

1 late poll · ✗

Model predicted

D+1.1

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	D+1.1	1.7	✓
2	WPA Intelligence	R+3.0	5.8	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	JHK Forecasts	Dem 83%	0.030	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 79%	0.044	✓
3	Race to the WH	Dem 79%	0.045	✓
4	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
6	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
7	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	The Economist	Dem 72%	0.077	✓
9	Split Ticket	Dem 69%	0.096	✓
10	VotePredictor	Dem 51%	0.242	✓
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 51%	0.245	✓
12	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.562	✗

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
WPA Intelligence	2024-10-17	401	R+3.0	6