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Toss-up · 2024 House
California House
In the 2024 California House race, Dave Min (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+2.9
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WPA Intelligence | R+3.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 83% | 0.030 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Dem 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 72% | 0.077 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Dem 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 68% | 0.100 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 51% | 0.245 | ✓ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
WPA Intelligence2024-10-176
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 California House race?
Dave Min (D) won, by about 2.9 points (D+2.9).
When was the 2024 California House election held?
It was held in November 2024.