Connecticut House

Actual result

D+6.8

Final polls said

D+3.8

1 late poll · ✓

Model predicted

D+3.1

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+3.8	3.0	✓
2	VotePredictor	D+3.1	3.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
3	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 85%	0.024	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Dem 84%	0.025	✓
6	The Economist	Dem 83%	0.029	✓
7	VotePredictor	Dem 80%	0.042	✓
8	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 76%	0.058	✓
9	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
12	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
13	Split Ticket	Dem 70%	0.090	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Emerson College	2024-10-25	620	D+3.8	3