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Toss-up · 2024 House
Connecticut House
In the 2024 Connecticut House race, Jahana Hayes (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+6.8
Final polls said
D+3.8
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+3.8 | 3.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 85% | 0.024 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 84% | 0.025 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 76% | 0.058 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 70% | 0.089 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2024-10-253
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Connecticut House race?
Jahana Hayes (D) won, by about 6.8 points (D+6.8).
When was the 2024 Connecticut House election held?
It was held in November 2024.