Toss-up · 2024 House

Connecticut House

In the 2024 Connecticut House race, Jahana Hayes (D) won by about 7 points.

Jahana Hayes· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+6.8

Final polls said

D+3.8

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+3.8	3.0	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
3	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 85%	0.024	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Dem 84%	0.025	✓
6	The Economist	Dem 83%	0.029	✓
7	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 81%	0.037	✓
8	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 76%	0.058	✓
9	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
12	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
13	Split Ticket	Dem 70%	0.090	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—