← all past elections
Toss-up · 2024 House
Florida House
In the 2024 Florida House race, Anna Paulina Luna (R) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
R+9.7
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pete Polls | EVEN | 9.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Rep 88% | 0.015 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 80% | 0.039 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 76% | 0.058 | ✓ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 51% | 0.238 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
St. Pete Polls2024-10-2010
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Florida House race?
Anna Paulina Luna (R) won, by about 9.7 points (R+9.7).
When was the 2024 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2024.