Florida House

Actual result

R+9.6

Final polls said

EVEN

1 late poll · ✗

Model predicted

R+2.3

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	R+2.3	7.3	✓
2	St. Pete Polls	EVEN	9.6	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	RealClearPolitics	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Race to the WH	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
3	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
4	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	The Economist	Rep 88%	0.015	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 80%	0.039	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 76%	0.058	✓
11	VotePredictor	Rep 76%	0.060	✓
12	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
14	Split Ticket	Rep 55%	0.202	✓

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
St. Pete Polls	2024-10-20	905	EVEN	10