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Toss-up · 2024 House
Iowa House
In the 2024 Iowa House race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.2
Final polls said
D+16.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer | D+16.0 | 16.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 75% | 0.063 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 71% | 0.086 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 71% | 0.087 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 56% | 0.191 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 57% | 0.322 | ✗ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 14 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Selzer2024-10-2916
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Iowa House race?
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) won, by about 0.2 points (R+0.2).
When was the 2024 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.