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Iowa House
Actual result
R+0.2
Final polls said
D+16.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+14.9
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+14.9 | 15.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | Selzer | D+16.0 | 16.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 75% | 0.063 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 71% | 0.086 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 71% | 0.087 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 56% | 0.191 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Dem 56% | 0.320 | ✗ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 14 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer | 2024-10-29 | 202 | D+16.0 | 16 |