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Toss-up · 2024 House
Iowa House
In the 2024 Iowa House race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.2
Final polls said
D+16.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer | D+16.0 | 16.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 75% | 0.063 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 71% | 0.086 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 71% | 0.087 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 56% | 0.191 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 98% | 0.953 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Selzer2024-10-2916
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Iowa House race?
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) won, by about 0.2 points (R+0.2).
When was the 2024 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2024.