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Toss-up · 2024 House
Iowa House
In the 2024 Iowa House race, Ashley Hinson (R) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
R+15.6
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer | R+3.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Selzer2024-10-2913
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Iowa House race?
Ashley Hinson (R) won, by about 15.6 points (R+15.6).
When was the 2024 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2024.