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Toss-up · 2024 House
Iowa House
In the 2024 Iowa House race, Ashley Hinson (R) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
R+15.6
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer | R+3.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 87% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Selzer2024-10-2913
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Iowa House race?
Ashley Hinson (R) won, by about 15.6 points (R+15.6).
When was the 2024 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.