Iowa House

Actual result

R+3.8

Final polls said

D+7.0

1 late poll · ✗

Model predicted

D+5.9

✗

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	D+5.9	9.8	✗
2	Selzer	D+7.0	10.8	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Rep 83%	0.030	✓
2	The Economist	Rep 81%	0.035	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
5	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Rep 67%	0.112	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 64%	0.130	✓
8	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
9	Split Ticket	Rep 55%	0.202	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 53%	0.221	✓
11	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
12	VotePredictor	Dem 50%	0.253	✗
13	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.360	✗
14	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.562	✗

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Selzer	2024-10-29	202	D+7.0	11