← all past elections
Toss-up · 2024 House
Iowa House
In the 2024 Iowa House race, Zachary Nunn (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+3.8
Final polls said
D+7.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer | D+7.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Rep 83% | 0.030 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.035 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 67% | 0.112 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 52% | 0.265 | ✗ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 14 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Selzer2024-10-2911
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Iowa House race?
Zachary Nunn (R) won, by about 3.8 points (R+3.8).
When was the 2024 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.