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Toss-up · 2024 House
Iowa House
In the 2024 Iowa House race, Zachary Nunn (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+3.8
Final polls said
D+7.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer | D+7.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Rep 83% | 0.030 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.035 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 67% | 0.112 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 13 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 79% | 0.619 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Selzer2024-10-2911
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Iowa House race?
Zachary Nunn (R) won, by about 3.8 points (R+3.8).
When was the 2024 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2024.