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Maine House
Actual result
D+0.5
Final polls said
D+3.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire | D+1.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Axis Research | R+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+4.2 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+12.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 82% | 0.033 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 68% | 0.103 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | Dem 66% | 0.114 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Dem 64% | 0.127 | ✓ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | 2024-10-31 | 683 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2024-10-26 | 484 | D+12.0 | 12 |
| Axis Research | 2024-10-18 | 411 | R+2.0 | 3 |