Toss-up · 2024 House

Maine House

In the 2024 Maine House race, Jared F. Golden (D) won by less than a point.

Jared F. Golden· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+0.5

Final polls said

D+3.7

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	University of New Hampshire	D+1.0	0.5	✓
2	Axis Research	R+2.0	2.5	✗
3	SurveyUSA	D+12.0	11.5	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	JHK Forecasts	Dem 86%	0.020	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 82%	0.033	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
4	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 72%	0.078	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 68%	0.103	✓
7	Split Ticket	Dem 67%	0.109	✓
8	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 65%	0.122	✓
9	The Economist	Dem 64%	0.127	✓
10	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
11	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
12	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—