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Toss-up · 2024 House
Maine House
In the 2024 Maine House race, Jared F. Golden (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.7
Final polls said
D+3.7
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire | D+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Axis Research | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+12.0 | 11.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 82% | 0.033 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 68% | 0.103 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Dem 64% | 0.127 | ✓ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire2024-10-311
SurveyUSA2024-10-2612
Axis Research2024-10-183
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Maine House race?
Jared F. Golden (D) won, by about 0.7 points (D+0.7).
When was the 2024 Maine House election held?
It was held in November 2024.