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Toss-up · 2024 House
Michigan House
In the 2024 Michigan House race, John James (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+6.1
Final polls said
R+1.9
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glengariff Group | R+3.8 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC | EVEN | 6.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Rep 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 73% | 0.074 | ✓ |
| 10 | Split Ticket | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 69% | 0.094 | ✓ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
DCCC2024-10-166
Glengariff Group2024-10-152
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Michigan House race?
John James (R) won, by about 6.1 points (R+6.1).
When was the 2024 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2024.