Toss-up · 2024 House

Michigan House

In the 2024 Michigan House race, John James (R) won by about 6 points.

John James· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+6.1

Final polls said

R+1.9

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Glengariff Group	R+3.8	2.3	✓
2	DCCC	EVEN	6.1	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	JHK Forecasts	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
2	Race to the WH	Rep 90%	0.011	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 84%	0.026	✓
4	The Economist	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
5	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
6	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
8	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
9	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
10	Split Ticket	Rep 70%	0.090	✓
11	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 69%	0.094	✓
12	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 57%	0.185	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—