Michigan House

Actual result

R+6.1

Final polls said

R+1.9

2 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

R+4.4

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	R+4.4	1.7	✓
2	Glengariff Group	R+3.8	2.3	✓
3	DCCC	EVEN	6.1	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	JHK Forecasts	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
2	Race to the WH	Rep 90%	0.011	✓
3	VotePredictor	Rep 84%	0.026	✓
4	The Economist	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
5	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
6	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
8	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
9	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
10	Split Ticket	Rep 70%	0.090	✓
11	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 69%	0.094	✓
12	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 57%	0.185	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—

Polls (2)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
DCCC	2024-10-16	388	EVEN	6
Glengariff Group	2024-10-15	400	R+3.8	2