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Toss-up · 2024 House
Michigan House
In the 2024 Michigan House race, Tom Barrett (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+3.7
Final polls said
R+2.5
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+2.5 | 1.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 68% | 0.101 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 65% | 0.123 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 64% | 0.129 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 61% | 0.153 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Rep 56% | 0.193 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2024-10-251
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Michigan House race?
Tom Barrett (R) won, by about 3.7 points (R+3.7).
When was the 2024 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2024.