Michigan House

Actual result

R+3.7

Final polls said

R+2.5

1 late poll · ✓

Model predicted

R+2.9

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	R+2.9	0.8	✓
2	Emerson College	R+2.5	1.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 68%	0.101	✓
5	The Economist	Rep 65%	0.123	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 63%	0.137	✓
7	Split Ticket	Rep 61%	0.152	✓
8	JHK Forecasts	Rep 61%	0.153	✓
9	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
10	Race to the WH	Rep 56%	0.193	✓
11	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
12	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	VotePredictor	Dem 59%	0.342	✗
14	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.360	✗

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Emerson College	2024-10-25	535	R+2.5	1