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Toss-up · 2024 House
Nebraska House
In the 2024 Nebraska House race, Don Bacon (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.8
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 65% | 0.420 | ✗ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 67% | 0.451 | ✗ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 72% | 0.513 | ✗ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Dem 79% | 0.616 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2024-10-246
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Nebraska House race?
Don Bacon (R) won, by about 1.8 points (R+1.8).
When was the 2024 Nebraska House election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.