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Nebraska House
Actual result
R+1.8
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+2.6
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+2.6 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 53% | 0.278 | ✗ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 65% | 0.420 | ✗ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 67% | 0.451 | ✗ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 72% | 0.513 | ✗ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Dem 79% | 0.616 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2024-10-24 | 389 | D+4.0 | 6 |