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Toss-up · 2024 House
Nebraska House
In the 2024 Nebraska House race, Don Bacon (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.9
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 65% | 0.420 | ✗ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 67% | 0.451 | ✗ |
| 8 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 68% | 0.458 | ✗ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 72% | 0.513 | ✗ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Dem 79% | 0.616 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2024-10-246
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Nebraska House race?
Don Bacon (R) won, by about 1.9 points (R+1.9).
When was the 2024 Nebraska House election held?
It was held in November 2024.