Toss-up · 2024 House

New Hampshire House

In the 2024 New Hampshire House race, Maggie Goodlander (D) won by about 6 points.

Maggie Goodlander· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+6.0

Final polls said

D+17.5

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Saint Anselm College	D+8.0	2.0	✓
2	University of New Hampshire	D+14.0	8.0	✓
3	The Dartmouth Poll	D+30.5	24.5	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
7	The Economist	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
8	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
9	Split Ticket	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
10	Race to the WH	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
12	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
13	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 75%	0.062	✓