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New Hampshire House
Actual result
D+6.0
Final polls said
D+17.5
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Anselm College | D+8.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire | D+14.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+18.7 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Dartmouth Poll | D+30.5 | 24.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Dartmouth Poll | 2024-11-02 | 329 | D+30.5 | 25 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2024-10-31 | 1359 | D+14.0 | 8 |
| Saint Anselm College | 2024-10-28 | 1384 | D+8.0 | 2 |