← all past elections
Toss-up · 2024 House
New York House
In the 2024 New York House race, Nick LaLota (R) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
R+10.4
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | R+3.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 84% | 0.027 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 64% | 0.128 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Siena College2024-10-157
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 New York House race?
Nick LaLota (R) won, by about 10.4 points (R+10.4).
When was the 2024 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2024.