New York House

Actual result

R+10.4

Final polls said

R+3.0

1 late poll · ✓

Model predicted

R+3.4

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	R+3.4	7.0	✓
2	Siena College	R+3.0	7.4	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	JHK Forecasts	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
2	Race to the WH	Rep 92%	0.006	✓
3	The Economist	Rep 91%	0.008	✓
4	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
5	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
6	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 84%	0.027	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 79%	0.044	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
12	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	VotePredictor	Rep 74%	0.070	✓
14	Split Ticket	Rep 72%	0.078	✓

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Siena College	2024-10-15	526	R+3.0	7