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Toss-up · 2024 House
New York House
In the 2024 New York House race, Michael Lawler (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+6.3
Final polls said
R+4.6
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+4.6 | 1.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 72% | 0.081 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.133 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 11 | The Economist | Rep 55% | 0.200 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2024-10-252
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 New York House race?
Michael Lawler (R) won, by about 6.3 points (R+6.3).
When was the 2024 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.