New York House

Actual result

R+6.3

Final polls said

R+4.6

1 late poll · ✓

Model predicted

R+6.2

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	R+6.2	0.1	✓
2	Emerson College	R+4.6	1.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Rep 72%	0.081	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 64%	0.133	✓
7	Split Ticket	Rep 61%	0.152	✓
8	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
9	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 59%	0.168	✓
11	The Economist	Rep 55%	0.200	✓
12	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	Race to the WH	Dem 52%	0.270	✗
14	VotePredictor	Dem 57%	0.321	✗

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Emerson College	2024-10-25	475	R+4.6	2