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Toss-up · 2024 House
New York House
In the 2024 New York House race, Michael Lawler (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+6.3
Final polls said
R+4.6
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+4.6 | 1.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 77% | 0.055 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 72% | 0.081 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.133 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 12 | The Economist | Rep 55% | 0.200 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Dem 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2024-10-252
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 New York House race?
Michael Lawler (R) won, by about 6.3 points (R+6.3).
When was the 2024 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2024.