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Toss-up · 2024 House
New York House
In the 2024 New York House race, Thomas R. Suozzi (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+8.0
Final polls said
D+2.7
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+4.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+3.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | J.L. Partners | D+1.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 56% | 0.195 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
J.L. Partners2024-02-117
Emerson College2024-02-055
Siena College2024-02-054
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 New York House race?
Thomas R. Suozzi (D) won, by about 8.0 points (D+8.0).
When was the 2024 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2024.