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New York House
Actual result
D+8.0
Final polls said
D+2.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+4.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+3.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+2.1 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | J.L. Partners | D+1.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Dem 57% | 0.186 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.L. Partners | 2024-02-11 | 500 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2024-02-05 | 742 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Siena College | 2024-02-05 | 694 | D+4.0 | 4 |