Toss-up · 2024 House

New York House

In the 2024 New York House race, Thomas R. Suozzi (D) won by about 8 points.

Thomas R. Suozzi· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+8.0

Final polls said

D+2.7

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Siena College	D+4.0	4.0	✓
2	Emerson College	D+3.0	5.0	✓
3	J.L. Partners	D+1.0	7.0	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	The Economist	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	Split Ticket	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
6	Race to the WH	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	RealClearPolitics	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
12	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
14	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 56%	0.195	✓