← past elections
New York House
Actual result
D+2.2
Final polls said
D+5.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gotham Polling & Analytics | R+1.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+5.8 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Siena College | D+12.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Dem 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 77% | 0.054 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 12 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 60% | 0.161 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Rep 61% | 0.367 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gotham Polling & Analytics | 2024-10-15 | 734 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Siena College | 2024-10-15 | 532 | D+12.0 | 10 |