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Toss-up · 2024 House
New York House
In the 2024 New York House race, Laura Gillen (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.3
Final polls said
D+5.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gotham Polling & Analytics | R+1.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 2 | Siena College | D+12.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Dem 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 77% | 0.054 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 75% | 0.060 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 60% | 0.161 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gotham Polling & Analytics2024-10-153
Siena College2024-10-1510
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 New York House race?
Laura Gillen (D) won, by about 2.3 points (D+2.3).
When was the 2024 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2024.