Toss-up · 2024 House

New York House

In the 2024 New York House race, Laura Gillen (D) won by about 2 points.

Laura Gillen· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+2.2

Final polls said

D+5.5

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Gotham Polling & Analytics	R+1.0	3.2	✗
2	Siena College	D+12.0	9.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
2	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 88%	0.014	✓
4	Race to the WH	Dem 86%	0.019	✓
5	Split Ticket	Dem 83%	0.029	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 77%	0.054	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
12	JHK Forecasts	Dem 60%	0.161	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 61%	0.369	✗