Ohio House

Actual result

D+2.2

Final polls said

R+1.0

1 late poll · ✗

Model predicted

D+1.8

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	D+1.8	0.4	✓
2	co/efficient	R+1.0	3.2	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 85%	0.023	✓
4	VotePredictor	Dem 85%	0.023	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 80%	0.039	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Split Ticket	Dem 72%	0.078	✓
11	The Economist	Dem 72%	0.078	✓
12	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
co/efficient	2024-10-23	707	R+1.0	3