Toss-up · 2024 House

Ohio House

In the 2024 Ohio House race, Emilia Strong Sykes (D) won by about 2 points.

Emilia Strong Sykes· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+2.2

Final polls said

R+1.0

1 late poll · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	co/efficient	R+1.0	3.2	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 85%	0.022	✓
4	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 85%	0.023	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 80%	0.039	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Split Ticket	Dem 72%	0.078	✓
11	The Economist	Dem 72%	0.078	✓
12	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—