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Pennsylvania House
Actual result
R+1.6
Final polls said
D+7.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+6.5
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+6.5 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | OH Predictive Insights | D+7.0 | 8.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 69% | 0.479 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 74% | 0.553 | ✗ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Dem 78% | 0.602 | ✗ |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 84% | 0.707 | ✗ |
| 14 | The Economist | Dem 88% | 0.774 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | 2024-10-24 | 406 | D+7.0 | 9 |