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Toss-up · 2024 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2024 Pennsylvania House race, Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr. (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.6
Final polls said
D+7.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OH Predictive Insights | D+7.0 | 8.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 69% | 0.479 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 74% | 0.553 | ✗ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 78% | 0.613 | ✗ |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 84% | 0.707 | ✗ |
| 14 | The Economist | Dem 88% | 0.774 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
OH Predictive Insights2024-10-249
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Pennsylvania House race?
Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr. (R) won, by about 1.6 points (R+1.6).
When was the 2024 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.