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Toss-up · 2024 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2024 Pennsylvania House race, Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr. (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.6
Final polls said
D+7.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OH Predictive Insights | D+7.0 | 8.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 69% | 0.479 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 74% | 0.553 | ✗ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 82% | 0.677 | ✗ |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 84% | 0.707 | ✗ |
| 14 | The Economist | Dem 88% | 0.774 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
OH Predictive Insights2024-10-249
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Pennsylvania House race?
Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr. (R) won, by about 1.6 points (R+1.6).
When was the 2024 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2024.