Toss-up · 2024 House

US House

In the 2024 US House race, the Republican (R) won by about 3 points.

Actual result

R+2.8

Final polls said

R+0.2

34 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Rasmussen Reports	R+3.0	0.2	✓
2	J.L. Partners	R+3.0	0.2	✓
3	SSRS	R+3.0	0.2	✓
4	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO	R+4.0	1.2	✓
5	Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies	R+1.0	1.8	✓
6	OnMessage Inc.	R+1.0	1.8	✓
7	Echelon Insights	R+1.0	1.8	✓
8	OH Predictive Insights	R+1.0	1.8	✓
9	Cygnal	R+0.1	2.7	✓
10	Harris Insights & Analytics	EVEN	2.8	✗
11	Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research	EVEN	2.8	✗
12	The New York Times/Siena College	EVEN	2.8	✗
13	Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies	D+1.0	3.8	✗
14	Paradigm	D+1.0	3.8	✗
15	Emerson College	D+1.1	3.9	✗
16	Suffolk University	D+1.3	4.1	✗
17	John Zogby Strategies	D+1.4	4.2	✗
18	Marist College	D+2.0	4.8	✗
19	American Pulse Research & Polling	D+2.0	4.8	✗
20	Monmouth University	D+2.0	4.8	✗
21	Targoz Market Research	D+3.0	5.8	✗
22	YouGov	D+3.0	5.8	✗
23	Clarity Campaign Labs	D+3.0	5.8	✗