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US House
Actual result
R+2.8
Final polls said
R+0.2
34 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | R+3.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | J.L. Partners | R+3.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | SSRS | R+3.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+1.6 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO | R+4.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies | R+1.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | OnMessage Inc. | R+1.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Echelon Insights | R+1.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | OH Predictive Insights | R+1.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cygnal | R+0.1 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Harris Insights & Analytics | EVEN | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | EVEN | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | D+1.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 15 | Paradigm | D+1.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 16 | Emerson College | D+1.1 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 17 | Suffolk University | D+1.3 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 18 | John Zogby Strategies | D+1.4 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 19 | Marist College | D+2.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 20 | American Pulse Research & Polling | D+2.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | Monmouth University | D+2.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 22 | Targoz Market Research | D+3.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 23 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 24 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+3.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
Polls (34)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies | 2024-11-02 | 1005 | D+1.4 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-11-01 | 1809 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Marist College | 2024-11-01 | 1297 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2024-10-31 | 3759 | EVEN | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies | 2024-10-31 | 671 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 1000 | D+1.1 | 4 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2024-10-31 | 1088 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2024-10-31 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-30 | 1152 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-29 | 800 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Echelon Insights | 2024-10-29 | 1328 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2024-10-29 | 822 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2024-10-28 | 3718 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| J.L. Partners | 2024-10-27 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-27 | 1309 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2024-10-26 | 1475 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 2024-10-25 | 707 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Cygnal | 2024-10-25 | 1507 | R+0.1 | 3 |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-23 | 911 | EVEN | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-23 | 1000 | D+0.8 | 4 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-22 | 800 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2024-10-21 | 1244 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-21 | 2516 | EVEN | 3 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-21 | 1704 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO | 2024-10-20 | 1500 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-20 | 1290 | EVEN | 3 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2024-10-20 | 1314 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Paradigm | 2024-10-19 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-19 | 1186 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University | 2024-10-19 | 802 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 1000 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2024-10-16 | 1000 | D+1.3 | 4 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-15 | 800 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-15 | 1000 | D+2.3 | 5 |