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Toss-up · 2024 House
Virginia House
In the 2024 Virginia House race, Jennifer A. Kiggans (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+3.8
Final polls said
R+0.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christopher Newport University | R+1.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC | EVEN | 3.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Rep 88% | 0.016 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 69% | 0.097 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
DCCC2024-10-194
Christopher Newport University2024-10-153
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Virginia House race?
Jennifer A. Kiggans (R) won, by about 3.8 points (R+3.8).
When was the 2024 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2024.