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Toss-up · 2024 House
Virginia House
In the 2024 Virginia House race, Jennifer A. Kiggans (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+3.8
Final polls said
R+0.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christopher Newport University | R+1.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC | EVEN | 3.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Rep 88% | 0.016 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 79% | 0.043 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
DCCC2024-10-194
Christopher Newport University2024-10-153
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Virginia House race?
Jennifer A. Kiggans (R) won, by about 3.8 points (R+3.8).
When was the 2024 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.