Virginia House

Actual result

R+3.8

Final polls said

R+0.5

2 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

R+3.8

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	R+3.8	0.0	✓
2	Christopher Newport University	R+1.0	2.8	✓
3	DCCC	EVEN	3.8	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 93%	0.006	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Rep 89%	0.013	✓
3	Race to the WH	Rep 88%	0.016	✓
4	VotePredictor	Rep 80%	0.041	✓
5	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
6	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
7	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
8	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 74%	0.068	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 66%	0.116	✓
11	Split Ticket	Rep 62%	0.144	✓
12	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
13	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—

Polls (2)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
DCCC	2024-10-19	373	EVEN	4
Christopher Newport University	2024-10-15	800	R+1.0	3