Virginia House

Actual result

D+2.6

Final polls said

D+2.0

1 late poll · ✓

Model predicted

D+1.9

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Ragnar Research Partners	D+2.0	0.6	✓
2	VotePredictor	D+1.9	0.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor	Dem 92%	0.006	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 90%	0.011	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Dem 86%	0.019	✓
4	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 82%	0.032	✓
5	Race to the WH	Dem 82%	0.034	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 76%	0.057	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
12	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Ragnar Research Partners	2024-10-21	400	D+2.0	1