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Toss-up · 2024 House
Virginia House
In the 2024 Virginia House race, Eugene Simon Vindman (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+2.6
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ragnar Research Partners | D+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Dem 82% | 0.034 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 76% | 0.057 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Ragnar Research Partners2024-10-211
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Virginia House race?
Eugene Simon Vindman (D) won, by about 2.6 points (D+2.6).
When was the 2024 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2024.