Toss-up · 2024 House

Virginia House

In the 2024 Virginia House race, Eugene Simon Vindman (D) won by about 3 points.

Eugene Simon Vindman· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+2.6

Final polls said

D+2.0

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Ragnar Research Partners	D+2.0	0.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 93%	0.006	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 90%	0.011	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Dem 86%	0.019	✓
4	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 82%	0.032	✓
5	Race to the WH	Dem 82%	0.034	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 76%	0.057	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
12	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—