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Arizona President
Actual result
R+5.5
Final polls said
R+2.0
32 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+5.8 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | AtlasIntel | R+5.1 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Patriot Polling | R+3.5 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Data Orbital | R+7.8 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | OnMessage Inc. | R+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | InsiderAdvantage | R+2.9 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.1 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Emerson College | R+2.1 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Mitchell Research & Communications | R+2.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Rasmussen Reports | R+2.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | R+1.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 13 | OH Predictive Insights | R+1.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 14 | Data for Progress | R+1.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | J.L. Partners | R+1.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 16 | Marist College | R+1.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 17 | Focaldata | R+1.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 18 | Victory Insights | R+0.8 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 19 | HighGround Inc. | R+0.6 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 20 | YouGov | R+0.5 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 21 | Morning Consult | R+0.1 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 22 | Truedot | D+0.7 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 23 | SSRS | D+1.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 24 | RABA Research | D+2.0 | 7.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 90% | 0.009 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Silver Bulletin | Rep 72% | 0.080 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 69% | 0.097 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 69% | 0.099 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 68% | 0.104 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 67% | 0.106 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (32)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 875 | R+5.1 | 0 |
| Victory Insights | 2024-11-02 | 750 | R+0.8 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-11-02 | 1090 | R+2.1 | 3 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 801 | R+3.5 | 2 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 967 | R+6.7 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-11-01 | 800 | R+2.9 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 900 | R+2.1 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 1005 | R+4.5 | 1 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-30 | 800 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-29 | 1025 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-29 | 652 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 2024-10-29 | 775 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2024-10-28 | 610 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-28 | 856 | R+0.5 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2024-10-27 | 1079 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 1458 | R+3.9 | 2 |
| Data Orbital | 2024-10-27 | 550 | R+7.8 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-27 | 803 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| RABA Research | 2024-10-26 | 589 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-26 | 901 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-25 | 1094 | R+2.1 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-25 | 666 | R+0.1 | 5 |
| J.L. Partners | 2024-10-25 | 500 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-23 | 781 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-21 | 710 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| HighGround Inc. | 2024-10-19 | 400 | R+0.6 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-19 | 1193 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-19 | 800 | R+2.5 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-18 | 861 | EVEN | 6 |
| Focaldata | 2024-10-17 | 1779 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 691 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Truedot | 2024-10-16 | 846 | D+0.7 | 6 |