Toss-up · 2024 President

Arizona President

In the 2024 Arizona President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 6 points.

Actual result

R+5.5

Final polls said

R+2.0

32 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	AtlasIntel	R+5.1	0.4	✓
2	The New York Times/Siena College	R+4.0	1.5	✓
3	Patriot Polling	R+3.5	2.0	✓
4	Data Orbital	R+7.8	2.3	✓
5	OnMessage Inc.	R+3.0	2.5	✓
6	InsiderAdvantage	R+2.9	2.6	✓
7	Trafalgar Group	R+2.1	3.4	✓
8	Emerson College	R+2.1	3.4	✓
9	Mitchell Research & Communications	R+2.0	3.5	✓
10	Rasmussen Reports	R+2.0	3.5	✓
11	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	R+1.0	4.5	✓
12	OH Predictive Insights	R+1.0	4.5	✓
13	Data for Progress	R+1.0	4.5	✓
14	J.L. Partners	R+1.0	4.5	✓
15	Marist College	R+1.0	4.5	✓
16	Focaldata	R+1.0	4.5	✓
17	Victory Insights	R+0.8	4.7	✓
18	HighGround Inc.	R+0.6	4.9	✓
19	YouGov	R+0.5	5.0	✓
20	Morning Consult	R+0.1	5.4	✓
21	Truedot	D+0.7	6.2	✗
22	SSRS	D+1.0	6.5	✗
23	RABA Research	D+2.0	7.5	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 91%	0.009	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
5	Silver Bulletin	Rep 72%	0.080	✓
6	The Economist	Rep 69%	0.097	✓
7	Race to the WH	Rep 69%	0.099	✓
8	JHK Forecasts	Rep 68%	0.104	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 67%	0.106	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 64%	0.130	✓
11	Split Ticket	Rep 63%	0.137	✓
12	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
13	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—