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Georgia President
Actual result
R+2.2
Final polls said
R+1.3
25 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.4 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | National Public Affairs | R+2.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Citadel | R+2.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Patriot Polling | R+1.8 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Morning Consult | R+1.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+1.5 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | R+1.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | SSRS | R+1.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 10 | Focaldata | R+1.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | AtlasIntel | R+0.8 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Emerson College | R+0.5 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 13 | East Carolina University | R+0.4 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Marist College | EVEN | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 15 | VotePredictor | R+4.5 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 16 | TIPP Insights | D+0.1 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 17 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+0.5 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 18 | Rasmussen Reports | R+5.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 19 | Data for Progress | D+1.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 85% | 0.024 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 62% | 0.146 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 60% | 0.164 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Rep 59% | 0.165 | ✓ |
| 7 | Silver Bulletin | Rep 59% | 0.169 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Rep 56% | 0.192 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
Polls (25)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 1112 | R+0.8 | 1 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 818 | R+1.8 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-11-02 | 800 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 1174 | R+2.1 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 800 | R+0.5 | 2 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 1212 | R+1.9 | 0 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-29 | 1779 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| East Carolina University | 2024-10-29 | 902 | R+0.4 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2024-10-28 | 972 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-28 | 939 | R+1.5 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-28 | 1004 | D+0.5 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 1429 | R+3.3 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-26 | 1112 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-26 | 910 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-25 | 1087 | R+2.4 | 0 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-25 | 732 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-25 | 1009 | R+1.6 | 1 |
| National Public Affairs | 2024-10-22 | 829 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-21 | 1168 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| The Citadel | 2024-10-21 | 1126 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-19 | 1193 | EVEN | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-18 | 855 | R+1.5 | 1 |
| Focaldata | 2024-10-17 | 1850 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 1019 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-15 | 813 | D+0.1 | 2 |