Toss-up · 2024 President

Georgia President

In the 2024 Georgia President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

R+2.2

Final polls said

R+1.3

25 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Trafalgar Group	R+2.4	0.2	✓
2	National Public Affairs	R+2.0	0.2	✓
3	The Citadel	R+2.0	0.2	✓
4	Patriot Polling	R+1.8	0.4	✓
5	Morning Consult	R+1.6	0.6	✓
6	YouGov	R+1.5	0.7	✓
7	InsiderAdvantage	R+1.0	1.2	✓
8	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	R+1.0	1.2	✓
9	SSRS	R+1.0	1.2	✓
10	Focaldata	R+1.0	1.2	✓
11	AtlasIntel	R+0.8	1.4	✓
12	Emerson College	R+0.5	1.7	✓
13	East Carolina University	R+0.4	1.8	✓
14	Marist College	EVEN	2.2	✗
15	TIPP Insights	D+0.1	2.4	✗
16	The New York Times/Siena College	D+0.5	2.7	✗
17	Rasmussen Reports	R+5.0	2.8	✓
18	Data for Progress	D+1.0	3.2	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 85%	0.023	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 63%	0.137	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Rep 62%	0.146	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 60%	0.164	✓
6	Race to the WH	Rep 59%	0.165	✓
7	Silver Bulletin	Rep 59%	0.169	✓
8	Split Ticket	Rep 58%	0.176	✓
9	The Economist	Rep 56%	0.192	✓
10	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
11	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
12	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
14	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.810	✗