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Toss-up · 2024 President
Iowa President
In the 2024 Iowa President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
R+13.2
Final polls said
R+4.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+9.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | InsiderAdvantage | R+6.8 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Selzer | D+3.0 | 16.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Silver Bulletin | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 11 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 83% | 0.028 | ✓ |
| 12 | Race to the WH | Rep 82% | 0.033 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 14 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
InsiderAdvantage2024-11-027
Emerson College2024-11-014
Selzer2024-10-2916
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Iowa President race?
Donald J Trump (R) won, by about 13.2 points (R+13.2).
When was the 2024 Iowa President election held?
It was held in November 2024.