Iowa President

Actual result

R+13.3

Final polls said

R+4.3

3 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

R+10.4

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	R+10.4	2.9	✓
2	Emerson College	R+9.1	4.2	✓
3	InsiderAdvantage	R+6.8	6.5	✓
4	Selzer	D+3.0	16.3	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Rep 96%	0.002	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
5	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
6	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
10	Silver Bulletin	Rep 85%	0.023	✓
11	JHK Forecasts	Rep 83%	0.028	✓
12	Race to the WH	Rep 82%	0.033	✓
13	Split Ticket	Rep 78%	0.048	✓
14	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓

Polls (3)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
InsiderAdvantage	2024-11-02	800	R+6.8	7
Emerson College	2024-11-01	800	R+9.1	4
Selzer	2024-10-29	808	D+3.0	16