Maine President

Actual result

R+9.6

Final polls said

R+6.0

3 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

R+9.4

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	R+9.4	0.2	✓
2	Axis Research	R+9.0	0.6	✓
3	SurveyUSA	R+5.0	4.6	✓
4	University of New Hampshire	R+4.0	5.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Rep 95%	0.002	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 90%	0.009	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
5	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
6	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	Race to the WH	Rep 88%	0.014	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 87%	0.017	✓
11	JHK Forecasts	Rep 87%	0.018	✓
12	Split Ticket	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
13	Silver Bulletin	Rep 76%	0.056	✓
14	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓

Polls (3)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
University of New Hampshire	2024-10-31	683	R+4.0	6
SurveyUSA	2024-10-26	484	R+5.0	5
Axis Research	2024-10-18	411	R+9.0	1