Toss-up · 2024 President

Virginia President

In the 2024 Virginia President race, Kamala D Harris (D) won by about 6 points.

Actual result

D+5.8

Final polls said

D+4.8

8 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Research Co.	D+6.0	0.2	✓
2	The Washington Post	D+6.0	0.2	✓
3	AtlasIntel	D+5.4	0.4	✓
4	Cygnal	D+7.6	1.8	✓
5	Rasmussen Reports	D+2.0	3.8	✓
6	Roanoke College	D+10.0	4.2	✓
7	Quantus Insights	D+1.1	4.7	✓
8	Blueprint Polling	D+0.7	5.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
3	Race to the WH	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
4	Silver Bulletin	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 92%	0.007	✓
6	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	JHK Forecasts	Dem 90%	0.011	✓
12	Split Ticket	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 81%	0.036	✓
14	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 81%	0.036	✓