VotePredictor
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Virginia President

Actual result
D+5.8
Final polls said
D+4.8
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.5
✓
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Research Co.D+6.00.2✓
2The Washington PostD+6.00.2✓
3AtlasIntelD+5.40.4✓
4VotePredictorD+4.51.3✓
5CygnalD+7.61.8✓
6Rasmussen ReportsD+2.03.8✓
7Roanoke CollegeD+10.04.2✓
8Quantus InsightsD+1.14.7✓
9Blueprint PollingD+0.75.1✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#ForecasterWin probBrierCalled
1CNalysisDem 99%0.000✓
2The EconomistDem 97%0.001✓
3Race to the WHDem 95%0.003✓
4Silver BulletinDem 94%0.004✓
5FiveThirtyEightDem 92%0.007✓
6Sabato's Crystal BallDem 90%0.010✓
7Inside ElectionsDem 90%0.010✓
8Cook PoliticalDem 90%0.010✓
9Fox NewsDem 90%0.010✓
10Elections DailyDem 90%0.010✓
11JHK ForecastsDem 90%0.011✓
12Split TicketDem 84%0.026✓
13DDHQ/Decision DeskDem 81%0.036✓
14VotePredictorDem 80%0.040✓

Polls (8)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Research Co.2024-11-02450D+6.00
AtlasIntel2024-11-022202D+5.40
Blueprint Polling2024-10-29520D+0.75
Cygnal2024-10-28600D+7.62
Roanoke College2024-10-27851D+10.04
Rasmussen Reports2024-10-241014D+2.04
Quantus Insights2024-10-23725D+1.15
The Washington Post2024-10-211004D+6.00