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Arizona Senate
Actual result
D+2.4
Final polls said
D+4.4
26 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+2.5 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Patriot Polling | D+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | InsiderAdvantage | D+2.1 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Victory Insights | D+2.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+3.5 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | OH Predictive Insights | D+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Rasmussen Reports | D+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Trafalgar Group | D+0.5 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | OnMessage Inc. | EVEN | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | Emerson College | D+4.9 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Data for Progress | D+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 14 | AtlasIntel | R+0.6 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 15 | Data Orbital | R+0.7 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 16 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+7.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 17 | Morning Consult | D+8.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 18 | SSRS | D+8.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 19 | Marist College | D+8.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 20 | HighGround Inc. | D+9.4 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 21 | RABA Research | D+15.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 22 | Truedot | D+15.3 | 12.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 78% | 0.050 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Dem 67% | 0.111 | ✓ |
Polls (26)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 875 | R+0.6 | 3 |
| Victory Insights | 2024-11-02 | 750 | D+2.7 | 0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-11-02 | 1090 | D+0.5 | 2 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 801 | D+2.2 | 0 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 967 | R+1.7 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-11-01 | 800 | D+2.1 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 900 | D+4.9 | 3 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-30 | 800 | EVEN | 2 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 1005 | R+0.7 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-29 | 1025 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 2024-10-29 | 775 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2024-10-28 | 610 | D+3.5 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-28 | 856 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-27 | 803 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2024-10-27 | 1079 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Data Orbital | 2024-10-27 | 550 | R+0.7 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 1458 | D+0.5 | 2 |
| RABA Research | 2024-10-26 | 589 | D+15.0 | 13 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-25 | 1094 | D+3.8 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-25 | 666 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-23 | 781 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-19 | 1193 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-19 | 800 | D+4.2 | 2 |
| HighGround Inc. | 2024-10-19 | 400 | D+9.4 | 7 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 691 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Truedot | 2024-10-16 | 846 | D+15.3 | 13 |