Toss-up · 2024 Senate

Arizona Senate

In the 2024 Arizona Senate race, Ruben Gallego (D) won by about 2 points.

Ruben Gallego· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+2.4

Final polls said

D+4.4

26 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Patriot Polling	D+2.2	0.2	✓
2	InsiderAdvantage	D+2.1	0.3	✓
3	Victory Insights	D+2.7	0.3	✓
4	Mitchell Research & Communications	D+3.5	1.1	✓
5	OH Predictive Insights	D+4.0	1.6	✓
6	YouGov	D+4.0	1.6	✓
7	Rasmussen Reports	D+4.0	1.6	✓
8	Trafalgar Group	D+0.5	1.9	✓
9	OnMessage Inc.	EVEN	2.4	✗
10	Emerson College	D+4.9	2.5	✓
11	The New York Times/Siena College	D+5.0	2.6	✓
12	Data for Progress	D+5.0	2.6	✓
13	AtlasIntel	R+0.6	3.0	✗
14	Data Orbital	R+0.7	3.1	✗
15	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	D+7.0	4.6	✓
16	Morning Consult	D+8.0	5.6	✓
17	SSRS	D+8.0	5.6	✓
18	Marist College	D+8.0	5.6	✓
19	HighGround Inc.	D+9.4	7.0	✓
20	RABA Research	D+15.0	12.6	✓
21	Truedot	D+15.3	12.9	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
2	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 89%	0.013	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Dem 83%	0.029	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 78%	0.050	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
7	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 73%	0.073	✓
11	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 67%	0.109	✓