Toss-up · 2024 Senate

Florida Senate

In the 2024 Florida Senate race, Rick Scott (R) won by about 13 points.

Rick Scott· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+12.8

Final polls said

R+5.0

11 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Stetson University	R+8.0	4.8	✓
2	RMG Research	R+8.0	4.8	✓
3	Research Co.	R+7.0	5.8	✓
4	Emerson College	R+5.6	7.2	✓
5	Cherry Communications	R+5.0	7.8	✓
6	Victory Insights	R+4.5	8.3	✓
7	Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research	R+4.0	8.8	✓
8	Cygnal	R+3.9	8.9	✓
9	St. Pete Polls	R+3.2	9.6	✓
10	Morning Consult	R+3.0	9.8	✓
11	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	R+3.0	9.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
3	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
5	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
6	Race to the WH	Rep 89%	0.013	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Rep 84%	0.026	✓
8	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 84%	0.027	✓
9	The Economist	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
10	Split Ticket	Rep 78%	0.048	✓
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 78%	0.048	✓