Florida Senate

Actual result

R+12.8

Final polls said

R+5.0

11 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

R+11.1

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	R+11.1	1.8	✓
2	Stetson University	R+8.0	4.8	✓
3	RMG Research	R+8.0	4.8	✓
4	Research Co.	R+7.0	5.8	✓
5	Emerson College	R+5.6	7.2	✓
6	Cherry Communications	R+5.0	7.8	✓
7	Victory Insights	R+4.5	8.3	✓
8	Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research	R+4.0	8.8	✓
9	Cygnal	R+3.9	8.9	✓
10	St. Pete Polls	R+3.2	9.6	✓
11	Morning Consult	R+3.0	9.8	✓
12	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	R+3.0	9.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
3	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
5	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
6	Race to the WH	Rep 89%	0.013	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Rep 84%	0.026	✓
8	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 84%	0.027	✓
9	The Economist	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
10	Split Ticket	Rep 78%	0.048	✓
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 78%	0.048	✓

Polls (11)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Research Co.	2024-11-02	450	R+7.0	6
Victory Insights	2024-11-01	400	R+4.5	8
Stetson University	2024-10-28	452	R+8.0	5
Cygnal	2024-10-27	600	R+3.9	9
Morning Consult	2024-10-27	2022	R+3.0	10
St. Pete Polls	2024-10-24	1227	R+3.2	10
Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research	2024-10-23	897	R+4.0	9
Emerson College	2024-10-19	860	R+5.6	7
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	2024-10-17	1275	R+3.0	10
Cherry Communications	2024-10-15	614	R+5.0	8
RMG Research	2024-10-15	788	R+8.0	5