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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Maryland Senate
In the 2024 Maryland Senate race, Angela D. Alsobrooks (D) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
D+11.8
Final polls said
D+13.2
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Washington Post | D+12.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+13.2 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Concord Public Opinion Partners | D+14.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Blueprint Polling | D+8.6 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Morning Consult | D+7.6 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+23.5 | 11.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Concord Public Opinion Partners2024-11-022
Blueprint Polling2024-10-293
Morning Consult2024-10-264
YouGov2024-10-2512
Emerson College2024-10-201
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Maryland Senate race?
Angela D. Alsobrooks (D) won, by about 11.8 points (D+11.8).
When was the 2024 Maryland Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.