← past elections
Maryland Senate
Actual result
D+11.9
Final polls said
D+13.2
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Washington Post | D+12.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+13.2 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Concord Public Opinion Partners | D+14.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+15.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Blueprint Polling | D+8.6 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Morning Consult | D+7.6 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+23.5 | 11.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 2024-11-02 | 419 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| Blueprint Polling | 2024-10-29 | 510 | D+8.6 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-26 | 468 | D+7.6 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-25 | 500 | D+23.5 | 12 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-20 | 865 | D+13.2 | 1 |
| The Washington Post | 2024-10-19 | 1000 | D+12.0 | 0 |