Toss-up · 2024 Senate

Maryland Senate

In the 2024 Maryland Senate race, Angela D. Alsobrooks (D) won by about 12 points.

Angela D. Alsobrooks· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+11.9

Final polls said

D+13.2

6 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	The Washington Post	D+12.0	0.1	✓
2	Emerson College	D+13.2	1.3	✓
3	Concord Public Opinion Partners	D+14.0	2.1	✓
4	Blueprint Polling	D+8.6	3.3	✓
5	Morning Consult	D+7.6	4.3	✓
6	YouGov	D+23.5	11.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
4	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	The Economist	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
7	Race to the WH	Dem 98%	0.001	✓
8	Split Ticket	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
9	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓