Toss-up · 2024 Senate

Maine Senate

In the 2024 Maine Senate race, the Democrat (D) won by about 18 points.

Actual result

D+17.5

Final polls said

D+20.5

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	University of New Hampshire	D+15.0	2.5	✓
2	SurveyUSA	D+26.0	8.5	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
6	Split Ticket	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
7	Race to the WH	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
8	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
9	The Economist	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
10	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
11	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 95%	0.003	✓