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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Minnesota Senate
In the 2024 Minnesota Senate race, Amy Klobuchar (D) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
D+15.8
Final polls said
D+13.7
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+17.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Blueprint Polling | D+17.2 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+11.7 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | AtlasIntel | D+11.4 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | D+11.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
AtlasIntel2024-11-024
Research Co.2024-11-021
Blueprint Polling2024-10-291
Rasmussen Reports2024-10-255
Change Research2024-10-194
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Minnesota Senate race?
Amy Klobuchar (D) won, by about 15.8 points (D+15.8).
When was the 2024 Minnesota Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.