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Minnesota Senate
Actual result
D+15.8
Final polls said
D+13.7
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+13.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+17.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Blueprint Polling | D+17.2 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+13.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+11.7 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | AtlasIntel | D+11.4 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Rasmussen Reports | D+11.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-02 | 2065 | D+11.4 | 4 |
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 450 | D+17.0 | 1 |
| Blueprint Polling | 2024-10-29 | 534 | D+17.2 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-25 | 959 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| Change Research | 2024-10-19 | 1734 | D+11.7 | 4 |