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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Missouri Senate
In the 2024 Missouri Senate race, Josh Hawley (R) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
R+13.7
Final polls said
R+8.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | R+11.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+10.1 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | R+3.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2024-11-023
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner2024-10-2411
Emerson College2024-10-224
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Missouri Senate race?
Josh Hawley (R) won, by about 13.7 points (R+13.7).
When was the 2024 Missouri Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.