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Missouri Senate
Actual result
R+13.8
Final polls said
R+8.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+14.8 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | R+11.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+10.1 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | R+3.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 450 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | 2024-10-24 | 600 | R+3.0 | 11 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-22 | 620 | R+10.1 | 4 |