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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Missouri Senate
In the 2024 Missouri Senate race, Josh Hawley (R) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
R+13.8
Final polls said
R+8.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | R+11.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+10.1 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | R+3.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2024-11-023
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner2024-10-2411
Emerson College2024-10-224
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Missouri Senate race?
Josh Hawley (R) won, by about 13.8 points (R+13.8).
When was the 2024 Missouri Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.