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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Montana Senate
In the 2024 Montana Senate race, Tim Sheehy (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.1
Final polls said
R+6.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | R+10.6 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+2.5 | 4.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 4 | Split Ticket | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 78% | 0.047 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Rep 71% | 0.083 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Rep 71% | 0.085 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
AtlasIntel2024-11-024
Emerson College2024-10-245
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Montana Senate race?
Tim Sheehy (R) won, by about 7.1 points (R+7.1).
When was the 2024 Montana Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.