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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Montana Senate
In the 2024 Montana Senate race, Tim Sheehy (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.1
Final polls said
R+6.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | R+10.6 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+2.5 | 4.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 4 | Split Ticket | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 78% | 0.047 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Rep 71% | 0.083 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Rep 71% | 0.085 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
AtlasIntel2024-11-024
Emerson College2024-10-245
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Montana Senate race?
Tim Sheehy (R) won, by about 7.1 points (R+7.1).
When was the 2024 Montana Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.