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Nebraska Senate
Actual result
R+6.8
Final polls said
R+5.5
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+7.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Torchlight Strategies | R+7.7 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+2.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+11.9 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Change Research | EVEN | 6.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 83% | 0.028 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Rep 77% | 0.055 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2024-10-30 | 600 | EVEN | 7 |
| Torchlight Strategies | 2024-10-26 | 605 | R+7.7 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-24 | 1194 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-24 | 1202 | R+7.0 | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-24 | 1194 | R+18.0 | 7 |
| Change Research | 2024-10-19 | 815 | D+2.0 | 9 |