Toss-up · 2024 Senate

Nebraska Senate

In the 2024 Nebraska Senate race, Deb Fischer (R) won by about 7 points.

Deb Fischer· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+6.8

Final polls said

R+5.5

6 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	YouGov	R+7.0	0.2	✓
2	Torchlight Strategies	R+7.7	0.9	✓
3	The New York Times/Siena College	R+2.0	4.8	✓
4	Change Research	EVEN	6.8	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 94%	0.004	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Rep 83%	0.028	✓
4	Race to the WH	Rep 82%	0.031	✓
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
6	Split Ticket	Rep 78%	0.048	✓
7	The Economist	Rep 77%	0.055	✓
8	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
9	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
10	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
11	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓