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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
New Jersey Senate
In the 2024 New Jersey Senate race, Andy Kim (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+9.6
Final polls said
D+20.0
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | D+16.4 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | D+18.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+18.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rutgers University | D+27.5 | 17.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2024-11-028
Cygnal2024-10-237
Fairleigh Dickinson University2024-10-238
Rutgers University2024-10-1818
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 New Jersey Senate race?
Andy Kim (D) won, by about 9.6 points (D+9.6).
When was the 2024 New Jersey Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.