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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
New Jersey Senate
In the 2024 New Jersey Senate race, Andy Kim (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+9.6
Final polls said
D+20.0
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | D+16.4 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | D+18.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+18.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rutgers University | D+27.5 | 17.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2024-11-028
Cygnal2024-10-237
Fairleigh Dickinson University2024-10-238
Rutgers University2024-10-1818
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 New Jersey Senate race?
Andy Kim (D) won, by about 9.6 points (D+9.6).
When was the 2024 New Jersey Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.