← past elections
New Jersey Senate
Actual result
D+9.6
Final polls said
D+20.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+19.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | D+16.4 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | D+18.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+18.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+19.5 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rutgers University | D+27.5 | 17.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 450 | D+18.0 | 8 |
| Cygnal | 2024-10-23 | 600 | D+16.4 | 7 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2024-10-23 | 806 | D+18.0 | 8 |
| Rutgers University | 2024-10-18 | 464 | D+27.5 | 18 |