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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
New Mexico Senate
In the 2024 New Mexico Senate race, Martin Heinrich (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+10.1
Final polls said
D+5.3
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | D+9.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Victory Insights | D+1.7 | 8.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 68% | 0.106 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Insights2024-11-029
Rasmussen Reports2024-10-251
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 New Mexico Senate race?
Martin Heinrich (D) won, by about 10.1 points (D+10.1).
When was the 2024 New Mexico Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.