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New Mexico Senate
Actual result
D+10.2
Final polls said
D+5.3
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | D+9.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+2.7 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Victory Insights | D+1.7 | 8.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Dem 67% | 0.112 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights | 2024-11-02 | 600 | D+1.7 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-25 | 749 | D+9.0 | 1 |