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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
New Mexico Senate
In the 2024 New Mexico Senate race, Martin Heinrich (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+10.2
Final polls said
D+5.3
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | D+9.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Victory Insights | D+1.7 | 8.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 67% | 0.107 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Insights2024-11-029
Rasmussen Reports2024-10-251
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 New Mexico Senate race?
Martin Heinrich (D) won, by about 10.2 points (D+10.2).
When was the 2024 New Mexico Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.