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Nevada Senate
Actual result
D+1.7
Final polls said
D+4.7
17 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | D+1.9 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | OH Predictive Insights | D+2.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Patriot Polling | D+3.1 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | OnMessage Inc. | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+3.4 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+0.8 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 7 | InsiderAdvantage | D+4.3 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | AtlasIntel | D+5.5 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+5.8 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | Data for Progress | D+7.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+7.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+9.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 14 | Rasmussen Reports | D+9.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 15 | SSRS | D+9.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 87% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Dem 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Dem 72% | 0.081 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 707 | D+5.5 | 4 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 792 | D+3.1 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 840 | D+5.8 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-30 | 700 | D+3.7 | 2 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 845 | D+1.9 | 0 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 2024-10-29 | 593 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2024-10-29 | 400 | R+0.8 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-28 | 1010 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-28 | 753 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-27 | 767 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Data for Progress | 2024-10-27 | 721 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 1083 | D+4.7 | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-26 | 1082 | D+1.9 | 0 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-23 | 683 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-20 | 600 | EVEN | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-19 | 800 | D+4.3 | 3 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 529 | D+7.0 | 5 |