Toss-up · 2024 Senate

Nevada Senate

In the 2024 Nevada Senate race, Jacky Rosen (D) won by about 2 points.

Jacky Rosen· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+1.7

Final polls said

D+4.7

17 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Trafalgar Group	D+1.9	0.2	✓
2	OH Predictive Insights	D+2.0	0.3	✓
3	Patriot Polling	D+3.1	1.4	✓
4	OnMessage Inc.	EVEN	1.7	✗
5	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	R+0.8	2.5	✗
6	InsiderAdvantage	D+4.3	2.6	✓
7	AtlasIntel	D+5.5	3.8	✓
8	Emerson College	D+5.8	4.1	✓
9	YouGov	D+7.0	5.3	✓
10	Data for Progress	D+7.0	5.3	✓
11	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	D+7.0	5.3	✓
12	The New York Times/Siena College	D+9.0	7.3	✓
13	Rasmussen Reports	D+9.0	7.3	✓
14	SSRS	D+9.0	7.3	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 87%	0.018	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 85%	0.023	✓
5	Split Ticket	Dem 78%	0.048	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
7	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 72%	0.078	✓
11	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 72%	0.080	✓