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Ohio Senate
Actual result
R+3.6
Final polls said
R+1.3
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+4.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | AtlasIntel | R+3.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+5.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | OnMessage Inc. | R+2.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | J.L. Partners | R+6.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Morning Consult | R+1.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Miami University | D+2.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 81% | 0.035 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Rep 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 57% | 0.322 | ✗ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 61% | 0.372 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-11-03 | 1095 | R+0.8 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-02 | 1022 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 900 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| Miami University | 2024-10-29 | 857 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-27 | 1254 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-26 | 1127 | D+0.8 | 4 |
| J.L. Partners | 2024-10-23 | 997 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-20 | 600 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-15 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 6 |