Toss-up · 2024 Senate

Ohio Senate

In the 2024 Ohio Senate race, Bernie Moreno (R) won by about 4 points.

Bernie Moreno· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+3.6

Final polls said

R+1.3

9 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	R+4.0	0.4	✓
2	AtlasIntel	R+3.0	0.6	✓
3	OnMessage Inc.	R+2.0	1.6	✓
4	J.L. Partners	R+6.0	2.4	✓
5	Morning Consult	R+1.0	2.6	✓
6	Trafalgar Group	R+0.8	2.8	✓
7	Miami University	D+2.0	5.6	✗
8	YouGov	D+2.0	5.6	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 61%	0.152	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 59%	0.168	✓
5	Split Ticket	Rep 56%	0.194	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
7	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
8	The Economist	Dem 55%	0.303	✗
9	JHK Forecasts	Dem 57%	0.322	✗
10	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.360	✗
11	Race to the WH	Dem 61%	0.372	✗