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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Ohio Senate
In the 2024 Ohio Senate race, Bernie Moreno (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+3.6
Final polls said
R+1.3
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+4.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | AtlasIntel | R+3.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | R+2.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | J.L. Partners | R+6.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Morning Consult | R+1.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Miami University | D+2.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Rep 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 57% | 0.322 | ✗ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 61% | 0.372 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Trafalgar Group2024-11-033
AtlasIntel2024-11-021
Emerson College2024-10-310
Miami University2024-10-296
Morning Consult2024-10-273
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Ohio Senate race?
Bernie Moreno (R) won, by about 3.6 points (R+3.6).
When was the 2024 Ohio Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.