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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Texas Senate
In the 2024 Texas Senate race, Ted Cruz (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+8.5
Final polls said
R+3.2
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | R+7.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | R+4.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+4.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Morning Consult | R+3.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of Texas at Tyler | R+2.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Emerson College | R+1.5 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | GBAO | EVEN | 8.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 84% | 0.025 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Rep 81% | 0.035 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 78% | 0.050 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
AtlasIntel2024-11-022
Cygnal2024-10-275
Morning Consult2024-10-266
The New York Times/Siena College2024-10-245
Rasmussen Reports2024-10-245
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Texas Senate race?
Ted Cruz (R) won, by about 8.5 points (R+8.5).
When was the 2024 Texas Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.