← past elections
Texas Senate
Actual result
R+8.5
Final polls said
R+3.2
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.6 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | AtlasIntel | R+7.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cygnal | R+4.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | R+4.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Morning Consult | R+3.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of Texas at Tyler | R+2.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Emerson College | R+1.5 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | GBAO | EVEN | 8.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 84% | 0.025 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Rep 81% | 0.035 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 78% | 0.050 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-02 | 2434 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Cygnal | 2024-10-27 | 600 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-26 | 2120 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-24 | 1180 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-24 | 1002 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| GBAO | 2024-10-20 | 800 | EVEN | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-19 | 815 | R+1.5 | 7 |
| University of Texas at Tyler | 2024-10-17 | 956 | R+2.0 | 7 |