Toss-up · 2024 Senate

Texas Senate

In the 2024 Texas Senate race, Ted Cruz (R) won by about 9 points.

Ted Cruz· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+8.5

Final polls said

R+3.2

8 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	AtlasIntel	R+7.0	1.5	✓
2	Cygnal	R+4.0	4.5	✓
3	The New York Times/Siena College	R+4.0	4.5	✓
4	Rasmussen Reports	R+4.0	4.5	✓
5	Morning Consult	R+3.0	5.5	✓
6	University of Texas at Tyler	R+2.0	6.5	✓
7	Emerson College	R+1.5	7.0	✓
8	GBAO	EVEN	8.5	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 94%	0.004	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 84%	0.025	✓
3	Race to the WH	Rep 81%	0.035	✓
4	The Economist	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Rep 78%	0.050	✓
6	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
8	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
9	Split Ticket	Rep 73%	0.073	✓
10	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
11	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓