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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Virginia Senate
In the 2024 Virginia Senate race, Tim Kaine (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+8.9
Final polls said
D+9.6
7 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | D+8.6 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | D+9.9 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Roanoke College | D+11.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | D+11.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research Co. | D+12.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Washington Post | D+13.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Blueprint Polling | D+1.5 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 10 | Split Ticket | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2024-11-023
AtlasIntel2024-11-020
Blueprint Polling2024-10-298
Cygnal2024-10-281
Roanoke College2024-10-272
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Virginia Senate race?
Tim Kaine (D) won, by about 8.9 points (D+8.9).
When was the 2024 Virginia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.