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Virginia Senate
Actual result
D+9.0
Final polls said
D+9.6
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | D+8.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+9.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cygnal | D+9.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Roanoke College | D+11.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | D+11.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Research Co. | D+12.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Washington Post | D+13.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Blueprint Polling | D+1.5 | 7.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 450 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-02 | 2202 | D+8.6 | 0 |
| Blueprint Polling | 2024-10-29 | 520 | D+1.5 | 8 |
| Cygnal | 2024-10-28 | 600 | D+9.9 | 1 |
| Roanoke College | 2024-10-27 | 851 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-24 | 1014 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| The Washington Post | 2024-10-21 | 1004 | D+13.0 | 4 |