Toss-up · 2024 Senate

Virginia Senate

In the 2024 Virginia Senate race, Tim Kaine (D) won by about 9 points.

Tim Kaine· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+9.0

Final polls said

D+9.6

7 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	AtlasIntel	D+8.6	0.4	✓
2	Cygnal	D+9.9	0.9	✓
3	Roanoke College	D+11.0	2.0	✓
4	Rasmussen Reports	D+11.0	2.0	✓
5	Research Co.	D+12.0	3.0	✓
6	The Washington Post	D+13.0	4.0	✓
7	Blueprint Polling	D+1.5	7.5	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
6	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
8	The Economist	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
9	Split Ticket	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
10	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 90%	0.010	✓