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Wisconsin Senate
Actual result
D+0.9
Final polls said
D+1.3
27 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.8
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | D+0.9 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | D+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Echelon Insights | D+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quinnipiac University | D+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | D+1.4 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 0.9 | ✗ |
| 9 | Patriot Polling | D+1.9 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+2.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | TIPP Insights | D+2.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | Morning Consult | D+2.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 13 | SSRS | D+2.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 14 | Marquette University Law School | D+2.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 15 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.5 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 16 | InsiderAdvantage | R+0.5 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 17 | VotePredictor | R+0.8 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 18 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 19 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+4.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 20 | YouGov | D+5.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 21 | Emerson College | D+5.1 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 76% | 0.058 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 72% | 0.080 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 68% | 0.100 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Rep 56% | 0.311 | ✗ |
Polls (27)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 869 | D+0.9 | 0 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 835 | D+1.9 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-11-02 | 1086 | R+0.5 | 1 |
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 450 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 728 | D+0.5 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-11-01 | 800 | R+0.5 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 800 | D+5.1 | 4 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-30 | 800 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 673 | D+0.2 | 1 |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-29 | 786 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-29 | 1305 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-29 | 831 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-28 | 1330 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Echelon Insights | 2024-10-28 | 600 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-28 | 863 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 1470 | D+0.8 | 0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-27 | 818 | EVEN | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-27 | 541 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-26 | 800 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-25 | 736 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-21 | 800 | D+0.7 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2024-10-21 | 500 | D+1.4 | 0 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-20 | 600 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2024-10-20 | 753 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2024-10-19 | 1108 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-19 | 1083 | R+0.4 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 622 | D+1.0 | 0 |