Toss-up · 2024 Senate

Wisconsin Senate

In the 2024 Wisconsin Senate race, Tammy Baldwin (D) won by less than a point.

Tammy Baldwin· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+0.9

Final polls said

D+1.3

27 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	AtlasIntel	D+0.9	0.0	✓
2	Research Co.	D+1.0	0.1	✓
3	OnMessage Inc.	D+1.0	0.1	✓
4	Echelon Insights	D+1.0	0.1	✓
5	Quinnipiac University	D+1.0	0.1	✓
6	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	D+1.0	0.1	✓
7	Suffolk University	D+1.4	0.5	✓
8	Rasmussen Reports	EVEN	0.9	✗
9	Patriot Polling	D+1.9	1.0	✓
10	Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research	D+2.0	1.1	✓
11	TIPP Insights	D+2.0	1.1	✓
12	Morning Consult	D+2.0	1.1	✓
13	SSRS	D+2.0	1.1	✓
14	Marquette University Law School	D+2.0	1.1	✓
15	Trafalgar Group	R+0.5	1.4	✗
16	InsiderAdvantage	R+0.5	1.4	✗
17	Marist College	D+3.0	2.1	✓
18	The New York Times/Siena College	D+4.0	3.1	✓
19	YouGov	D+5.0	4.1	✓
20	Emerson College	D+5.1	4.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Dem 80%	0.040	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 78%	0.048	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 76%	0.058	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
5	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Dem 72%	0.080	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 68%	0.100	✓
8	Split Ticket	Dem 64%	0.130	✓
9	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
10	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
11	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 55%	0.304	✗