Maine Senate
The 2026 Maine Senate race is essentially a toss-up: Troy Jackson (D) holds a narrow 52% edge, projected to win by less than a point. Updated daily from 3 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+0.6 — a 52% Democratic win.
Latest news
Troy Jackson Goes Positive in Statewide Ad“Troy Jackson is taking the positive route as Republicans sink money into negative ads in Maine,” Semafor reports. “In a new ad running statewide and shared first with Semafor, the Democratic Senate nominee appears alongside his mom, who talks about his upbri…
Politicalwire.com · Today
Maine Democrat Jackson goes positive in statewide adTroy Jackson is taking the positive route as Republicans sink money into negative ads in Maine. In a new ad running statewide and shared first with Semafor, the Democratic Senate nominee appears alongside his mom, who talks about his upbringing by teenage par…
Biztoc.com · Today
Maine Dem Candidate Troy Jackson Was Instrumental in Making Maine First State to Decriminalize Selling SexMaine Democrat U.S. Senate candidate Troy Jackson was instrumental in advancing legislation in 2023 making Maine the first state to decriminalize selling sex. The post Maine Dem Candidate Troy Jackson Was Instrumental in Making Maine First State to Decriminal…
Breitbart News · August 19, 2026
Another Republican caught begging for gas money after green-lighting Trump's war: reportYet another embattled Senate Republican incumbent has been caught begging supporters for gas money — after voting to continue President Donald Trump's war in Iran.According to The Daily Beast, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) told her supporters in a fundraising ema…
Raw Story · August 18, 2026- NEW ALLEGATION ROCKS MAINE SENATE RACE: Local Man Says He Saw Far-Left Democrat Troy Jackson Slap Longtime Partner with Open Hand — Comes After 1988 Police Report of Jackson Punching a Man
Maine US Senate candidate Troy Jackson Maine’s far-left Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Troy Jackson is facing explosive new allegations of domestic violence just weeks after Democrats scrambled to install him as their candidate against Republican Sen. Susan C…
Freerepublic.com · August 15, 2026
Vulnerable GOP senator breaks with Trump on 2 key issues as Vance makes stop without herSusan Collins skips JD Vance's Maine visit while opposing Trump's 50% tariffs on Canada and new postal service rules restricting mail-in voting.
Fox News · Today
Susan Collins faces criticism over Trump alignment, fundraising in 2026 Senate raceCollins' alignment with Trump and past decisions may sway moderate voters, impacting her re-election chances in a competitive Senate race. The post Susan Collins faces criticism over Trump alignment, fundraising in 2026 Senate race appeared first on Crypto Br…
Crypto Briefing · Today
Republican Donors Fume Over Trump Putting Texas Senate Seat at RiskPresident Trump isn’t spending any campaign cash on close midterm election races, irking his fellow Republicans and putting contests like the Texas Senate seat in jeopardy. In July, Politico reports, Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC didn’t spend any of its $400 mi…
The New Republic · August 21, 2026
Transcript: Trump Hits Brutal Poll Low as Dem Flip Shakes MAGA CountryThe following is a lightly edited transcript of the August 20 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.Democrats a…
The New Republic · August 20, 2026
Pathetic Susan Collins Is Literally Begging For 5 Bucks In Gas MoneyPitiful, pathetic Susan Collins is begging her supporters to chip in as little as 5 measly bucks to help her get enough gas to "keep her team on the road," even though her husband holds thousands in stock in the oil and gas industries and she voted not once, …
Crooksandliars.com · August 19, 2026
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The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Maine Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Troy Jackson (D), with roughly a 52% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+0.6. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the Maine Senate race?
There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research (2026-08-10), showed D+2.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+0.6.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Maine Senate race?
Troy Jackson is the Democratic candidate; Susan Collins is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Maine Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Maine Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.