Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 22 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+0.4 — a 52% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
'Leave us the hell alone!' Dem bigwigs warned of catastrophe if they swarm into MaineWASHINGTON — Progressives in Maine may be feeling duped as the state’s Democratic Party scrambles to replace former U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner, but nine-term Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree says that doesn’t mean the state party needs help from the …
Raw Story · Today- A bunch of failed candidates are scrambling to replace Graham Platner - Politico
A bunch of failed candidates are scrambling to replace Graham PlatnerPolitico Trump called ‘irresponsible and dangerous’ over election commission firings - US politics liveThe Guardian Why Some Women in Maine Are Mourning the End of Graham Platner’s CampaignT…
Slashdot.org · Today
The Maine Democrats Scrambling to Replace PlatnerSupporters in Maine are literally taping over old campaign signs as Democrats race to figure out who will take on Sen. Susan Collins now that Graham Platner is out. With Platner exiting after a sexual assault allegation he denies, the party has less than thre…
Newser · Today- Why Some Women in Maine Are Mourning the End of Graham Platner’s Campaign - The New York Times
Why Some Women in Maine Are Mourning the End of Graham Platner’s CampaignThe New York Times It’s not me, it’s them: Platner goes down snarling with graceless exit videoThe Guardian Graham Platner drops Maine Senate bid, clearing way for Democrats to pick new …
Slashdot.org · Today
'Leave us the hell alone!' Dem bigwigs warned of catastrophe if they swarm into MaineWASHINGTON — Progressives in Maine may be feeling duped as the state’s Democratic Party scrambles to replace former U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner, but nine-term Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree says that doesn’t mean the state party needs help from the …
Raw Story · Today
DOUG SCHOEN: Far-left gamble in Maine blows up, leaving Democrats with one choiceDemocrats face a crisis in Maine after the collapse of the Platner candidacy and must launch a robust primary to challenge Susan Collins in November.
Fox News · Today
Platner Exit Leaves Maine With No Clear Democrat FrontrunnerGraham Platner’s political demise has set off an unprecedented scramble to find a replacement to take on Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins, with at least six Democrats entering the wide-open field and less than four months until the November midterms.
Financial Post · Today
The Maine Democrats Scrambling to Replace PlatnerSupporters in Maine are literally taping over old campaign signs as Democrats race to figure out who will take on Sen. Susan Collins now that Graham Platner is out. With Platner exiting after a sexual assault allegation he denies, the party has less than thre…
Newser · Today
Susan Collins' re-election strategy collapses: reportMaine Republican Senator Susan Collins' carefully constructed re-election strategy collapsed following Democrat Graham Platner's abrupt exit from the Senate race due to multiple credible allegations of sexual misconduct and assault, according to a new report.…
Raw Story · Today
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Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-06-27 | 1003 | R+3.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-26 | 608 | D+2.0 |
| Wick | 2026-06-14 | 1008 | D+2.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-06-11 | 870 | D+1.0 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-06-08 | 497 | R+1.0 |
| Tavern Research | 2026-06-08 | 1642 | D+2.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-06-03 | 670 | D+4.0 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2026-06-03 | 800 | EVEN |
| UMass Lowell / YouGov | 2026-05-26 | 650 | D+5.0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2026-05-25 | 1280 | D+9.0 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2026-05-18 | 827 | D+7.0 |
| Pan Atlantic SMS Group | 2026-05-18 | 827 | D+7.0 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | 2026-05-16 | 650 | D+5.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | 378 | D+6.0 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2026-03-31 | 1167 | D+9.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-23 | 1075 | D+7.2 |
| OnMessage Public Strategies | 2026-03-08 | 600 | D+2.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-03-05 | 800 | D+6.8 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2026-03-02 | 810 | D+4.0 |
| Pan Atlantic SMS Group | 2026-03-02 | 810 | D+4.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-02-16 | 1105 | D+11.0 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2026-01-24 | 800 | R+1.0 |