Maine Senate
The 2026 Maine Senate race is essentially a toss-up: Susan Collins (R) holds a narrow 54% edge, projected to win by less than a point. Updated daily from 10 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 10 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+0.3 — a 54% Republican win.
Latest news
Former Obama advisor tells divided Maine Democrats to 'get over your s---' and win the raceFormer Obama strategists urge Maine Democrats to unite behind Troy Jackson, warning internal party feuds could cost them a critical Senate seat.
Fox News · Today
Troy Jackson and Susan Collins Take the Floor in MaineTwo very different candidates make their final cases en route to Election Day. The post Troy Jackson and Susan Collins Take the Floor in Maine appeared first on The American Prospect.
The American Prospect · Yesterday
What Maine Senate Race Polls Show as Obama Gives Jackson Late BoostPolling continues to show the Democrat Troy Jackson locked in a tight contest against incumbent Republican Susan Collins in Maine's U.S. Senate race, but support from former President Barack Obama may have given the challenger a boost less than a month from E…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Why Kansas Might Do the Unthinkable and Vote BlueYou’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Why Kansas might do the unthinkable and vote blueA perfect storm could be brewing…
The New Republic · Yesterday
'This is so bad for her': Susan Collins shocks onlookers with 'another road salt moment'Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) brought up road salt again Thursday night, and the internet was ready for her.At her second debate with Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, which aired on C-SPAN, Collins was asked whether she could use the appropriations process …
Raw Story · Yesterday
- New poll shows Republicans leading in nine key Senate races
A new poll released by the group Interactive Polls shows the Republican candidate leading in nine of the key 2026 Senate races that will decide which political party will have the majority next year in the upper chamber. The group, a non-partisan aggregator o…
Freerepublic.com · Today 
Susan Collins Interrupted by Heckler at Maine Fair: ‘You Can’t Eat Road Salt, Can You?!’Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) was heckled at Maine’s Fryeburg Fair by a protester who invoked her recent debate, shouting, “You can’t eat road salt, can you?!” The post Susan Collins Interrupted by Heckler at Maine Fair: ‘You Can’t Eat Road Salt, Can You?!’ first…
Mediaite · Yesterday- Troy Jackson and Susan Collins Take the Floor in Maine
Two very different candidates make their final cases en route to Election Day. The post Troy Jackson and Susan Collins Take the Floor in Maine appeared first on The American Prospect.
The American Prospect · Yesterday - What Maine Senate Race Polls Show as Obama Gives Jackson Late Boost
Polling continues to show the Democrat Troy Jackson locked in a tight contest against incumbent Republican Susan Collins in Maine's U.S. Senate race, but support from former President Barack Obama may have given the challenger a boost less than a month from E…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday 
Susan Collins Accidentally Spills The Scheme For 150K Laundered DonationThe best moments in debates are when one opponent forces the other to explain some shady, underhanded process that they've engaged in, and Thursday night was no exception. There's been extensive reporting on Susan Collins' laundered $150K contribution from Na…
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Maine Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Susan Collins (R), with roughly a 54% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+0.3. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the Maine Senate race?
There are 10 polls of this race. The most recent, from Marist University (2026-10-04), showed D+4.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+0.3.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Maine Senate race?
Troy Jackson is the Democratic candidate; Susan Collins is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Maine Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Maine Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.