VotePredictor
all races

Maine Senate

Graham Platner (D) vs Susan Collins (R)

Forecast — win probability
Graham Platner (D)
52%
(R) Susan Collins
48%
Toss-up · model margin D+0.4

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 22 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+0.4 — a 52% Democratic win.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100FebMarAprMayJunJul48% R52% D
Democrats 52% Republicans 48%

Latest news

Graham Platner (D)
Susan Collins (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (22)

PollsterDatenPoll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2026-06-271003R+3.0
The New York Times/Siena University2026-06-26608D+2.0
Wick2026-06-141008D+2.2
Quantus Insights2026-06-11870D+1.0
The Public Sentiment Institute2026-06-08497R+1.0
Tavern Research2026-06-081642D+2.0
Public Policy Polling2026-06-03670D+4.0
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates2026-06-03800EVEN
UMass Lowell / YouGov2026-05-26650D+5.0
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2026-05-251280D+9.0
Pan Atlantic Research2026-05-18827D+7.0
Pan Atlantic SMS Group2026-05-18827D+7.0
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov2026-05-16650D+5.0
Echelon Insights2026-04-09378D+6.0
Maine People's Resource Center2026-03-311167D+9.0
Emerson College2026-03-231075D+7.2
OnMessage Public Strategies2026-03-08600D+2.0
Quantus Insights2026-03-05800D+6.8
Pan Atlantic Research2026-03-02810D+4.0
Pan Atlantic SMS Group2026-03-02810D+4.0
University of New Hampshire2026-02-161105D+11.0
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates2026-01-24800R+1.0